How many rejections is normal?

The question behind this one is usually not statistical. It is: am I failing more than other people, and does that mean I should stop? Here is what the counts actually look like, field by field, and where the line sits between a normal number and a sign that the thing itself needs changing.

Publishing

Agents reject the overwhelming majority of what arrives. A widely used rule among writers is that fifty to a hundred queries is a normal campaign for a first novel, and that most books that sell were rejected by dozens of people first.

The counts from books you have heard of: Carrie, around thirty. A Time to Kill, twenty-eight. The 4-Hour Workweek, twenty-five. James Patterson's first novel, thirty-one. Dr. Seuss, twenty-seven. Louis L'Amour said two hundred before his first sale.

When the number means something: rejections that come back in under a day with no note are about the query letter or the first page. Rejections that arrive after a full manuscript request, with two lines of feedback, are about the book, and the same two lines appearing three times is the most valuable signal you will get.

Raising money

Fifty to a hundred meetings for a seed round is common and unremarkable. Howard Schultz pitched 242 people for Starbucks and 217 said no. Melanie Perkins was turned down by more than a hundred investors before Canva raised.

When the number means something: investors who pass for different reasons each time are a sign the pitch is unclear. Investors who pass for the same reason every time are telling you something about the business, and the tenth person to say it is not the problem.

Job hunting

For a competitive role, applications in the dozens before an offer is routine, and the ratio gets worse the more generic the application is. Jack Ma was rejected for around thirty jobs, including the KFC where he says he was the only applicant of twenty-four turned away.

When the number means something: if you are not getting first interviews, the problem is upstream, in the CV or the roles you are picking. If you get interviews and no offers, it is the interview. These are different problems and sending more applications only fixes the first.

Sport

In sport the count is public and enormous, which is why athletes are the easiest example to use on yourself. Kobe Bryant missed 14,481 shots, more than anyone in NBA history. Cy Young lost 316 games, also the record. Tom Brady was picked 199th.

When the number means something: in sport the same failure repeating is usually mechanical, not mental. Three marathons ending at the same kilometre is a fuelling or pacing problem with a specific fix, not a character flaw.

Exams

Professional exams have published pass rates, which makes this the one field where you can calculate your own odds honestly. Many bar and accountancy exams pass under half of candidates on a given sitting, and second and third attempts are normal enough to be planned for.

When the number means something: a near miss twice in the same section is a study plan problem. Failing by a wide margin twice is a signal to change the method, not to sit it again the same way.

So how many is too many?

The count itself rarely tells you to stop. What tells you something is the shape of it:

• Same reason every time. Ten rejections with the same sentence in them is one rejection, repeated. Change the thing they are pointing at.
• No feedback at all, ever. If nobody will tell you why, you are usually at the wrong door. Find a smaller door where a person actually reads.
• The number stopped moving. Not failing because you have not attempted anything in four months is the only count that should worry you.

None of that is a reason to quit. It is a reason to change one variable and go again.

Write your number down

People are bad at knowing their own count. Ask someone how many times they have tried and they will say "a few" while sitting on nine. The number is worth writing down, because it turns a vague sense of failure into a fact you can compare with other people's.

That is what The Losers Club is built around. Your nickname in the server carries your count, it goes up in public when an attempt fails, and it freezes on the day the thing works. The application asks you for the real number.